Pakistan’s Own Air Agency Questions Diwali Firework Blame for Lahore Smog

A domestic report complicates the cross-border blame

Pakistan had pointed to firecrackers set off during India’s Diwali festivities as a driver of the toxic haze settling over Lahore. A fresh assessment from the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative, released on Tuesday, casts doubt on that explanation, suggesting the picture is more complicated than a single external source.

The findings arrive as Lahore has ranked at the top of Swiss monitoring group IQAir’s list of the world’s most polluted major cities, with its air quality index reportedly climbing above 600 at the height of the smog.

Farm fires remain a domestic concern

The initiative’s report highlighted crop-residue burning within Punjab province as a significant contributor. Satellite observations recorded 16,714 probable farm fires between October 1 and November 9, a count that barely changed from the same stretch a year earlier.

Wind patterns tell a mixed story

The study examined the period from the evening of November 8 to the early hours of November 10, when Diwali fireworks were set off across India. Easterly winds did bring air from Indian territory into Pakistan during that window. Of 48 tracked air routes heading toward Lahore, Kasur and Sialkot, 45 had crossed India within the preceding twelve hours, largely over the Tarn Taran, Amritsar and Jammu areas.

Yet the authors stressed that such trajectories alone do not establish that fireworks were responsible for Lahore’s conditions. Emissions from New Delhi, the report found, never reached Lahore during the monitored period; air from the capital entered Pakistan near Rahim Yar Khan and Bahawalpur after 3 am on November 10, staying at least 266 km from the city.

Inland cities saw sharper rises

Measurements of fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, showed Lahore’s average climbing about 10 per cent over the relevant window compared with the previous week’s average. Kasur rose 27 per cent and Sialkot 33 per cent, while Narowal registered a slight 2 per cent drop.

Cities farther from the frontier fared worse. Faisalabad, roughly 130 km from the border, and Multan, about 180 km away, each recorded a 40 per cent increase. Averaged across the border cities of Lahore, Kasur, Sialkot and Narowal, the rise amounted to 36 micrograms per cubic metre, against 85 micrograms in Faisalabad and Multan. The authors noted that if cross-border transport were the main factor, the closest cities would ordinarily show the steepest jumps. Sialkot, which saw a 37 per cent increase with trajectories passing over the Jammu region, was the notable exception.

Background

Lahore’s winter smog has become a recurring crisis, driven by a combination of vehicle exhaust, industrial output, dust, and seasonal crop burning, with weather conditions often trapping pollutants close to the ground. The latest report underlines that attribution remains contested and that domestic sources deserve substantial attention alongside any transboundary influence.

What next

The findings add pressure on authorities to address farm burning and local emissions directly, rather than relying on an external explanation. Further monitoring over the coming weeks will show whether the inland pollution pattern persists.